Lpr> Vovan's opinion, published here, is independent. If you're not with him agree, then send your publications to Lprint. This question is still far from completion. A look at the future of Speccy with mathematical-psychological point of view. (C) Filosof Recently on the pages domestic (RB) and foreign (CIS) many articles appeared in electronic publications dedicated to the future of the computer ZX-Spectrum. There was a discussion on this topic in almost all magazines and newspapers, prominent representatives of the elite spoke out Sinclairist scenes, surveys were conducted and popularization notes appeared. It’s time to come to a common opinion - yes no, the debates do not fade away and are not empty mailboxes. So I decidedspeak out about this. Just approach him with a little different side. Those who have read Isaac's epic saga Asimov's "FOUNDATION", they know what it is psychohistory. For the rest I will give a few quotes from Galactic Encyclopedias: "Psychohistory... ... using mathematical concepts, proved that psychohistory is that offshoot mathematics which concerns reaction human societies into stable ones social and economic incentives... ...From all these conclusions it followed that, using precise mathematical data, can be influenced in a certain way on human societies... All psychohistory is based on development of Seldon functions, which express relationships and define dependence between individuals and social economic forces..." In general this means that using mathematics, psychology and having precise data, you can calculate the probability that or other event. I'm certainly not a scientist and Unfortunately, I don’t have exact data, but outline the future of Specky I I'll try anyway. So, first we need to determine main factors influencing Speccy:- social (number of users, their interests, user attitude other platforms and ordinary people, incentive work); - technical (technical capabilities in relation to other machines, difficulty in use and maintenance, quality); - economic (price in relation to other machines and programs, economic situation in the region); - territorial (density dispersal, speed of spread new technical and software innovations); Not all are listed here, but main factors for platform survival (try to find more). Now let's discuss them in relation to our defendant - Specky. Number of users count almost impossible due to informality and handicraft assembly of cars. We can only say that approximately once every six less than piss and four times more Amiga. User attitude other platforms are not identical: pisishniki by most of them are treated with contempt or at best, they don’t know about Specky at all, Amizhniks are nostalgic and very positive. The Sinclairists themselves are more inclined to move to in the futureanother platform, sometimes subconsciously. Simple non-computer citizens in the overwhelming majority don't know this exists computers like Spectrum are associated word computer with IBM. Programmers don't have incentives to work, most work for enthusiasm, only some manage get big profits. The distribution density is extremely uneven, most users lives in regional centers, intellectually and culturally developed cities. However, talented people can be found in fairly remote areas. New products spread very slowly, and if they are also guarded with passion from illegal copying, then in general arrive after six months. Technical capabilities below average: The graphics don’t even keep up with 8-bit consoles, speed - in general it’s better to be silent, the music is on average level, constantly improving. B the only thing that saves us in this regard is skill of programmers, artists and musicians (one of my acquaintances said about the graphics: "... the splash screens are dump, and games - ...!"). But Specky is perfect easy to use and learn. Enough quality products constantly maintain interest in him. Specky's priceamazingly small on average seven times less than that of PC, and in four times that of the Amiga. Programs cost also small, although the proportion in this case an order of magnitude lower. You can also notice change in economic situation in region, falling PC prices, lack of full-fledged advertising in the media, slogan “the more expensive, the better quality”, the influence of time finally, the desire is not get behind life. Now a little more detail. Indeed, Specky is ideally simple to work, it is the easiest to learn programming, drawing, playing music. But due to its simplicity caused primarily technical implementation, it is non-competitive capable. To put it bluntly, it's big part of the geeks most of the time plays on the computer, but doesn't work. On There are many more toys on other platforms beautiful and fascinating, one of mine familiar, excellent Spectrum-coder, having seen I couldn't play Warcraft 2 on PC get off, which in principle does not prevent him from the same day coming home to play enough Spectrum-Robocop. One could even say that a computer for those who have imagination, for whom is the text game in English and without graphics it’s not mudslinging, it’s a means have fun and practice your foreign language language; for thosewho in kilobyte strings codes are seen not by nonsense of letters and numbers, but future shell of a new newspaper, a game with amazing plot or at least extraordinary disk formatter for one track with a guarantee of lack of space. Some At work they write on IBM, at home they play on Amiga, and on Sundays they kick everyone out at home, stock up on beer and turn on their favorite Sinclair ZX Spectrum and launch Exalon. But enough romance, on one altruism will not live long, but time moves forward, new technologies appear, programs, games. What do we see on Specky? ? Over the past five years and received the popularity of lotions can only be highlighted modem and many music cards, and from new programs have appeared only about one and a half hundred (not counting journalism, of course). You can only add to them resurrected mouse and a lot of games received via INTERNET and reanimated on your own. Most conscious users just sit and waiting for new games to fall on them, and many don’t wait, they leave us. Lack of incentives for programmers negatively affects the quantity new programs. Suffice it to say that we have already begun to forget and disconnect from our history. Only two or threeelectronic publications remembered that this year we have holiday - our 15th anniversary Specky. Information level computer newspapers and magazines decreased by 20%, and their number continues to grow. Spectrofon's example turned out to be too contagious. It's time to understand that one publication for ten people is already too much. But this is what it really is occurs on some computers networks. “There won’t be enough materials for everyone!” - remember this please gentlemen, novo-newspaper-publishers. Remains just to say that some users having bought Specky they sell it in FOUR WEEKS! All of the above leaves no doubt is that our beloved Specky unfortunately sentenced. All that remains is using the methods of psychohistory to try predict the form of his death and approximate date. So what do we mean by death? platforms? - disappearance of demand; - transition of all programmers to others platforms; - disappearance of software consumers provision; All this is the death of the platform. How it will happen simultaneouslyto all regions or in stages? To this You can answer absolutely definitely - slowly and with great resistance. On this is indicated by his history: Specky has already almost died in the West, but we still raised him from the ruins and settled him on expanses of the former USSR. The process itself Speccy's dying as a computer is obvious. U there will gradually be no users left except for a few ardent fans who most likely they will have not only Specky. But this is still enough to talk about Spectrum forever. There will be more new programs are being written, but there will be all of them less and less. There will also be different craftsmen collect new computers and gadgets, but there will be less and less demand for them. B At the end of this, Speccy fans will remain in small groups of their own kind, shaking new from the INTERNET, but it’s coming soon will end. That's when Specky will die. K he will simply stop receiving new ones users - they will have nothing to do with it do. Would you like variety in the form of games? on other platforms. They won't help either programs for bringing Specky to schools - the whole world will work on PC, and we will work on Specky?; nor the completely new ZX models - why reinvent the wheel. Spectrum doomed and nothing will save him. We can only to delay this tragic moment. WhenWill Specky die? To this question without having exact data it is much easier to answer more difficult. But I'll try anyway. So, when is the worst time for Specky? time? Most likely in the summer. A lot of people moves in different directions, slows down release of new software, although its speed increases slightly distribution. So, most likely this season will be the last for Specky. Let's move on. What is the average age good programmer? About 18-20 years old, I think. This means that they are currently studying in university, most likely on a computer faculty. Where will they go to work? after it? That's right, to any other platform. We count: 1997+5 years at university+3 more years that they will still hold out = 20O5 from P.X. This is the minimum. What is the average age of the youngest people now? Sinclairists? About 15 years old. So according to us according to the plan, they first need to live to see university, study for five years and more they will last for a maximum of three years few new and rediscovered old ones programs. We count: 1997+(18 years-1S years)+5 years at university+ 3 years= 2008 from P.X. This is the maximum. So, in the end we get that total extinction will begin around the summer of 2005 and it will end with the complete death of Specky around the summer of 2008. Rather the whole process will take place extremely unevenly and in some regions will drag on for several more years. ... P.S. In the end I would like to note that all my conclusions and calculations are correct for stable situation in the region. It may well be that I'm wrong, I even hope so. P.P.S If you are interested in this article, I can provide you with its continuation under title "Speccy - way out of the crisis"
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