ZX-News #42 27 сентября 1998

Countdown - Computers are ready to take us 100 years ago.

        On materials Rospechat



                         Vladimir Hosick,

   Newspaper "St.-Petersburg Vedomosti", 08.19.1998



             COUNTDOWN

                   or

    Computers are ready to take us to

              hundred years ago


  Do not be surprised if you, well
encountering offensive in 2000, can not
use in the early days of the new millennium a number of 
familiar comforts. Do not think that the war started or nearing 
the end of the world, if you will shut stores, cease flights of 
aircraft and departure of trains, suddenly shut off the heat 
light or water stops coming mail. 

  All this will mean one thing - started
massive failures in computer systems. Hypothetical nightmare so 
far have repeatedly predicted, calculated and described is 
called a "problem 2000 "or" G2K ", for brevity, say computer 
scientists. Seeking a way out today, beating hundreds of 
thousands of professionals, heads of state, firms and 
enterprises. One way or another the problem will affect all the 
people whose lives are a little dependent on computers. And it 
now applies to each. Therefore, the "2000 problem" - our

common problem.



           Children will pay for it,

         that will save parents


  The whole point is that computers, which
people entrust execution of a set
major operations, with the advent of the XXI century
consider that this was not 2000, and 1900.
And this nonsense wild sow chaos in their
electronic brain, accustomed to think in
pattern.

  Mines under our computerized civilization were laid many 
years. Inside Each computer has at least one

electronic calendar, automatically counting down seconds, 
minutes, hours, days, months, years. Own built-in calendars 
many programs and operating systems. But too many of them are 
based on the old standard, which is denoted by the year last 
two digits. First for electronic brain always remain unchanged 
- 19. It happened because in the past programmers were trying 
to save as much as possible more RAM (which was worth its 
weight in gold), so use two digits to some has been justified. 
And then on the "trifling" Numbers simply forgot.


  In 1993 alone, a Canadian programmer
Peter De Jager published an article "Judgement
day of 2000, which first declared
impending chaos. But it took another
several years to the "G2K" conspiracy
seriously and have begun to take action. Developed
Western countries have done it last year. America has, for 
example, people who are deeply convinced that electronic crisis 
will be the beginning of the apocalypse. They are already 
buying land, build bunkers, stockpiling weapons and food to 
survive in troubled times. Others (among them enough fellow), 
by contrast, believe that the matter not worth a damn. 

  Life, despite the words of the past shows that the rollicking 
"maybe" from "G2K" not save.




           Big consequences

            small casus


  The first alarm calls have already heard in the
different parts of the world, including in St. Petersburg. At 
least one in serious trouble occurred, we still nearly a year 
ago, but still it were not widely advertised. 

  What went wrong. When students began to move from paper to 
plastic tickets, St. Petersburg transporters

have requested information from the university - as
guys on what courses to study. Information
supposed to take in electronic form - on
diskettes. When these data are entered into the computer, he 
said that almost half of the students put the cards as they 
long since finished school. 

  Because of "G2K" computers have decided that students who 
have yet to receive diplomas in 2000 - 2002, universities have 
already left nearly a hundred years ago, having considered the 
last date as 1900 - 1902. Well, this man incident in time and 
noticed him time to sort out (students may recall that magnetic 
cards to be introduced January 1, 1998. But introduced from 1 
February. - Comm. YB).


  Similar errors with more serious consequences, occurred in 
other countries. 

  Computer networks of several supermarkets in the United 
States simply "collapsed" when customers tried to pay off 
credit cards, whose validity ends after 2000. Processors cash

devices considered that these cards were issued
even after their term expired.

  National Health Service of Great Britain recorded a number of 
cases when the computer refused to commit to coming XXI century 
date and at the same time destroying the record previously 
made, not just computers reported that hospitals do not have in 
stock necessary medicines and materials -

because they are in terms of electronics, have become obsolete.

  According to Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering 
University Nicholas perk that more than a year studying the 
problem "2000 problem", at-risk are

all computers and software that were released before
1995. If we consider that they are used by most Russian 
enterprises, institutions, firms, the picture is impressive and 
frightening. By the way, the program which uses the Office of 
the Governor St. Petersburg, the old ones.


  But that's not all. Even in some modern programs written for 
the most prevalent today operating

system, "Windows 95", may contain errors,
related to "G2K".

  There is another nuance. Electronic Systems
management of large enterprises were created over many years. 
Today, they represent a highly diverse mosaic of

of old and new programs. Specialists
fear that if such a mosaic system remains at least one computer 
with mistake, it can cause so-called domino effect.


  And to understand the intricacies of electronic very 
difficult, even where the decision, "Problems of 2000" cast 
serious resources. To our knowledge, a system of one of the 
largest banks in St. Petersburg recently, a "trap" was found 
quite by accident, already after the bank's specialists found 
work finished. 



          Expensive cost only

           World War II


  Price to be paid for the solution "2000", today would call
no. While there are only preliminary
calculations.

  St. Petersburg administration and organizations
ensuring the vitality of the city,
as reported to us, deputy head of the telecommunications and 
information systems, Vladimir Kireev, will have to fork out for 
two to three million U.S. (annual budget control - a little

more than 3.5 million rubles, so the money
still have to search). Total expenses
the entire city, starting businesses, firms,
institutions, will surely be a few
once more.

  For comparison: The U.S. government estimates spending on 
"training" only "bureaucratic" computers in 4,7 billion 
dollars. A global costs are already close to six hundred 
billion. And the final figure will likely increase. 

  It is easier to get off all users with the most popular 
programs and operating systems. All the major firms have 
released special software that automatically corrects the 
"error 2000". They are distributed free of charge, they can

obtained via the Internet or in one of
missions.

  Others will have to cool sweat
after all the money - it's not all. Running out
time, and not enough experienced experts.
Most analysts agree
that those who have begun to test their systems
only in early 1998, not earlier, to
2000-mu have time to discover and celebrate not
more than 70 percent of errors.

  - To say that we have all been actively
involved in the work, I can not, - says
Vladimir Kireev. - For one simple reason: the two thousandth 
year does not begin tomorrow and everyone else - by the throat 
immediate problems ... 

  Even in the U.S. by the middle of this year 60
percentage of large companies have not completed
and the first phase of the assessment of the readiness of their
computers by 2000. What to say about
other countries where opportunities for an order of magnitude 
smaller than in America. 

  The most farsighted politicians try to
not just out of the situation with the least
losses, but even a benefit. No accident that the U.S. created a 
special council "Challenge 2000", and the chairman of the

Board was appointed assistant to the president. In the UK, held 
a week willingness to 2000, during which emphasis was placed on 
the promotion of small businesses in overcoming the "G2K". With 
no less serious about the problem and other Western countries.


  And in Russia, many behave as if
sure that the computer will bypass the crisis
us as a party. And from this state of affairs
is somehow not on itself.



           Do not wait for a thunderstorm


  - Let's do without panic and shapkozakidatelstva - calls 
Vladimir Kireev. - Universal catastrophe is not worth wait. But 
to treat the cause must be serious. 

  Well, Vladimir talks
correctly. But he acknowledges that we have
everything goes according to the rule of "no thunder clap - a 
peasant will not cross." And just may very well come up with a 
"2000 problem". 

  Time for the argument is no longer - the countdown has begun. 
And if you do not succeed tackle problems together and no one 
to organize this kind of work, so everyone should take care of 
itself. Already that, wittingly or unwittingly, will be made

contribution to the cause. And begin to act
You can visit the electronic databases on the Internet, the 
addresses of which we publish. 


When typeset nomer_____________________


  None of the information system of Russian government agencies 
has not been solved "2000 problem". This in an interview

Interfax news agency said recently deputy chairman of Russian 
State Committee Communication and Information Alexander 
Volokitin. 

  According to him, the necessary information
will be collected only by September. Therefore,
until the end of the year of the State Committee will prepare a 
report to the government of the country and indicate the need 
to address the problem measures.


  Experts say that at present
time on the basis of outdated electronic computers, which are 
absolutely not ready to move on the calendar of the XXI century,

operate information systems of all law enforcement agencies, 
the Ministry of Railways and the Ministry of Atomic Energy. Only

the initial costs of the Russian government to address "2000 
problem" could $ 500 million.




  Basic information on how to prepare your computer by the year 
2000, please visit the following Internet address: 

  - Server Electrotechnical University (St. Petersburg):

  http://www.eltech.ru

  - Russian Information Centre "Problem 2000" (Moscow):

  http://www.year2000.ru

  - International Information Centre
Year 2000:

  http://www.year2000.com



    Prepared for publication by Yuri Buravtsov.

From redaktsii_______________________________


  Among the people there is a very common mistake (in 
particular, it allowed author of the article). Its essence - an 
opinion about this XXI century and third millennium. The point

that many people consider this the beginning of
January 1, 2000. But in fact it is
not so. Just remember that chronology began with the 1-year, 
rather than 0-th. Therefore, two thousand years later comes the 
year 2001, not 2000. 

  Some tour companies will try to
rip so unprecedented jackpot -
so many people want to meet new
century and new millennium somewhere halfway around the world. 
It's not every day there are such events. Most tourists are 
expected in Japan as the "Land of the Rising Sun." Those who 
wish to first meet the "sun of a new era," there are both In 
2000 due to its lack of information, and in 2001 by reality

fact.

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